AP Psychology 2026 FRQ Set 1 Prediction
Expert Analysis: Based on comprehensive analysis of the 2023, 2024, and 2025 AP Psychology Free-Response Questions, course framework requirements, and emerging assessment trends, this prediction provides highly probable scenarios for the 2026 exam. The 2025 exam format introduced significant changes with Article Analysis Questions (AAQ) and Evidence-Based Questions (EBQ), which will continue in 2026.
Exam Format Overview
The 2026 AP Psychology Exam Section II will consist of 2 questions over 70 minutes (1 hour and 10 minutes):
| Question Type | Time Allocation | Scoring Weight | Format |
|---|---|---|---|
| Question 1: Article Analysis Question (AAQ) | ~25 minutes (10 min read + 15 min write) | 16.65% | 6 parts (A-F) |
| Question 2: Evidence-Based Question (EBQ) | ~45 minutes (15 min read + 30 min write) | 16.65% | 3 sources, 3 parts (A, B, C) |
Historical Pattern Analysis
Past 3 Years Topic Coverage
| Year | Question 1 Topics | Question 2 Topics |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Memory (Misinformation Effect), Research Methods, Ethics | Social Facilitation, Presence of Others, Animal Research |
| 2024 | Development (Piaget, Attachment, Egocentrism), Cognition, Motor Cortex | Research Methods, Memory, Big Five Personality, Yerkes-Dodson Law |
| 2023 | Sensation (Sound), Memory, Social Psychology, Biological (Ghrelin), Personality | Research Methods, I/O Psychology, Data Analysis, Learning Theory |
Predicted Question 1: Article Analysis Question
Topic Prediction: Operant Conditioning and Behavior Modification
Rationale: Learning theories (Unit 3) have not been the primary focus of AAQ format questions. Operant conditioning is foundational to AP Psychology and allows for rich research design analysis. This topic connects to multiple units and real-world applications.
Predicted Research Study Summary
Introduction: This research study explores the effectiveness of different reinforcement schedules on academic performance and homework completion rates in middle school students.
Participants: A total of 180 students from three middle schools participated. The sample included 52% female and 48% male students, ages 11-14 (mean age = 12.7, SD = 0.98). Demographic data: 45% White, 28% Hispanic/Latino, 15% Black/African American, 8% Asian American, 4% Other.
Method: After obtaining parental consent and student assent, participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions:
- Fixed-Ratio Schedule Group: Students received a reward (extra recess time) after completing exactly 5 homework assignments correctly (60 students)
- Variable-Ratio Schedule Group: Students received rewards after an unpredictable number of completed assignments, averaging 5 assignments (60 students)
- Control Group: Students received no rewards beyond standard feedback (60 students)
Researchers tracked homework completion rates over 8 weeks. Teachers were trained to deliver rewards consistently and remained blind to the study's hypothesis to prevent experimenter bias.
Results:
| Group | Mean Completion Rate | Standard Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| Fixed-Ratio Schedule | 78% | 12.3 |
| Variable-Ratio Schedule | 89% | 9.7 |
| Control Group | 65% | 15.8 |
Researchers found statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between all three groups. The variable-ratio schedule group demonstrated the highest completion rates and the most persistent behavior even after the study concluded.
Predicted Question Parts
Part A: Identify the research method used in the study.
Expected Answer: Experimental method (includes manipulation of independent variable and random assignment)
Part B: State the operational definition of the dependent variable in this study.
Expected Answer: Homework completion rate measured as the percentage of assigned homework completed correctly over the 8-week period
Part C: Describe what the standard deviation indicates about the variability of completion rates across the three groups.
Expected Answer: The control group had the highest standard deviation (15.8), indicating greater variability in completion rates among students, while the variable-ratio group had the lowest (9.7), suggesting more consistent performance
Part D: Identify at least one ethical guideline applied by the researchers.
Expected Answer: Informed consent (parental consent) and assent (student assent), or use of debriefing procedures
Part E: Explain the extent to which the research findings may or may not be generalizable using specific and relevant evidence from the study.
Expected Answer: The findings have moderate generalizability because the sample included students from multiple schools with diverse demographics. However, generalizability is limited to middle school students (ages 11-14) and may not apply to other age groups or different academic subjects
Part F: Explain how the research findings support operant conditioning principles.
Expected Answer: The findings support operant conditioning because positive reinforcement (rewards) increased the target behavior (homework completion). The variable-ratio schedule produced the highest and most persistent response rate, consistent with B.F. Skinner's research showing that variable-ratio schedules create strong resistance to extinction
Predicted Question 2: Evidence-Based Question
Topic Prediction: Treatment Effectiveness for Anxiety Disorders
Rationale: Mental health treatment (Unit 5) is increasingly relevant and hasn't been the primary EBQ focus. This topic allows students to evaluate multiple therapeutic approaches, demonstrate understanding of psychological perspectives, and analyze research across different methodologies.
Question Prompt
Using the sources provided, develop and justify an argument about whether cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is more effective than medication in treating anxiety disorders.
Part A
Propose a specific and defensible claim based in psychological science that responds to the question.
Sample Claim: Cognitive-behavioral therapy demonstrates superior long-term effectiveness compared to medication alone in treating anxiety disorders, particularly when measuring relapse rates and sustained symptom reduction.
Source 1 Summary
Introduction: This meta-analysis examined treatment outcomes for generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) across 45 randomized controlled trials.
Participants: Combined sample of 5,280 adults (ages 18-65) diagnosed with GAD across multiple countries.
Method: Researchers analyzed published studies comparing CBT, medication (SSRIs), and combined treatment approaches. Effect sizes were calculated for immediate post-treatment outcomes and 12-month follow-up assessments.
Results: At post-treatment, medication showed slightly higher immediate symptom reduction (effect size = 0.82) compared to CBT alone (effect size = 0.76). However, at 12-month follow-up, CBT demonstrated superior sustained improvement (effect size = 0.71) compared to medication (effect size = 0.48). Combined treatment showed the highest effect sizes at both time points (post-treatment = 0.89; 12-month = 0.79).
Discussion: The findings suggest that while medication provides rapid symptom relief, CBT produces more durable changes. The skills learned in CBT (cognitive restructuring, exposure techniques) continue to benefit patients after treatment ends.
Part B(i)
Support your claim using at least one piece of specific and relevant evidence from one of the sources.
Sample Answer: According to Source 1, at the 12-month follow-up assessment, CBT demonstrated an effect size of 0.71 for sustained improvement, while medication alone showed an effect size of only 0.48. This indicates that CBT produces more lasting therapeutic benefits.
Part B(ii)
Explain how the evidence from Part B(i) supports your claim using a psychological perspective, theory, concept, or research finding learned in AP Psychology.
Sample Answer: This evidence supports the cognitive perspective in psychology, which emphasizes that maladaptive thought patterns contribute to anxiety disorders. CBT directly addresses these cognitive distortions through cognitive restructuring techniques, teaching patients to identify and challenge irrational thoughts. Because patients learn these skills, they can continue applying them independently after therapy ends, explaining the superior long-term outcomes. In contrast, medication only addresses neurochemical imbalances temporarily and symptoms often return when medication is discontinued.
Source 2 Summary
Introduction: This longitudinal study examined neurological changes in patients with social anxiety disorder undergoing different treatments.
Participants: 72 adults (mean age = 28.4) diagnosed with social anxiety disorder, randomly assigned to CBT, SSRI medication, or waitlist control groups.
Method: Participants underwent fMRI scans before treatment, immediately after treatment (12 weeks), and at 6-month follow-up. Researchers measured amygdala activation in response to socially threatening stimuli.
Results: Both CBT and medication groups showed reduced amygdala hyperactivation post-treatment. However, at 6-month follow-up, the CBT group maintained these neural changes (23% reduction in amygdala activation from baseline), while the medication group showed return toward baseline levels (only 8% reduction maintained). Additionally, the CBT group showed increased prefrontal cortex activation, suggesting enhanced executive control over emotional responses.
Source 3 Summary
Introduction: This cost-effectiveness analysis compared healthcare utilization and treatment costs for anxiety disorder patients receiving different interventions.
Participants: Insurance claims data from 12,450 patients diagnosed with anxiety disorders over a 3-year period.
Method: Researchers analyzed total healthcare costs, including treatment costs, emergency room visits, and other medical appointments.
Results: Initial CBT treatment costs averaged $2,340 per patient for a 12-week course. Medication costs averaged $1,200 annually. However, over 3 years, CBT patients had total healthcare costs of $4,890 versus $7,650 for medication-only patients. The difference was attributed to fewer emergency visits, reduced need for ongoing treatment, and lower relapse rates in the CBT group.
Part C(i)
Support your claim using an additional piece of specific and relevant evidence from a different source than the one used in Part B(i).
Sample Answer: According to Source 2, at the 6-month follow-up, patients who received CBT maintained a 23% reduction in amygdala activation from baseline, while the medication group showed only an 8% reduction maintained. This demonstrates that CBT produces more lasting neurological changes.
Part C(ii)
Explain how the evidence from Part C(i) supports your claim using a different psychological perspective, theory, concept, or research finding learned in AP Psychology than the one used in Part B(ii).
Sample Answer: This evidence relates to the biological perspective and brain plasticity. The sustained reduction in amygdala hyperactivation and increased prefrontal cortex activity in CBT patients demonstrates neuroplasticity—the brain's ability to create new neural pathways through learning and experience. CBT techniques like exposure therapy and cognitive restructuring actively engage neural circuits, strengthening inhibitory connections from the prefrontal cortex to the amygdala. This neurological rewiring persists after treatment ends, whereas medication only temporarily alters neurotransmitter levels without promoting lasting structural brain changes.
Key Concepts to Master
Based on these predictions, students should thoroughly review:
Unit 3: Development and Learning
Classical Conditioning Operant Conditioning Reinforcement Schedules Fixed-Ratio Variable-Ratio Fixed-Interval Variable-Interval Positive Reinforcement Negative Reinforcement Punishment Extinction Shaping Token EconomyUnit 5: Mental and Physical Health
Anxiety Disorders GAD Panic Disorder Social Anxiety Phobias Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy Exposure Therapy Cognitive Restructuring Systematic Desensitization Psychopharmacology SSRIs Benzodiazepines Psychoanalysis Humanistic TherapyResearch Methods (All Units)
Experimental Design Random Assignment Independent Variable Dependent Variable Operational Definitions Control Group Experimental Group Confounding Variables Double-Blind Procedure Statistical Significance Effect Size Generalizability Ethics Informed ConsentStatistical Analysis
Measures of Central Tendency:
Where \(\bar{x}\) represents the arithmetic average, \(\sum x_i\) is the sum of all values, and \(n\) is the total number of values.
Measures of Variation:
Standard deviation \(\sigma\) measures the average distance of data points from the mean. Higher \(\sigma\) indicates greater variability.
Normal Distribution Standard Deviation Percentile Rank Correlation Coefficient Positive Correlation Negative Correlation Zero CorrelationAlternative Topic Possibilities
Question 1 (AAQ) Alternatives
- Intelligence Testing and Bias: Research on standardized testing, cultural fairness, and predictive validity
- Sleep and Circadian Rhythms: Studies on sleep deprivation effects on cognitive performance
- Neurotransmitters and Behavior: Research on dopamine, serotonin, or GABA in specific disorders
- Sensation and Perception: Studies on sensory adaptation, Weber's law, or signal detection theory
Question 2 (EBQ) Alternatives
- Nature vs. Nurture in Intelligence: Comparing genetic and environmental influences using twin studies
- Effectiveness of Different Parenting Styles: Authoritative vs. authoritarian vs. permissive approaches
- Conformity and Obedience: Social influence across different cultural contexts
- Motivation Theories: Comparing intrinsic vs. extrinsic motivation in academic achievement
Exam Preparation Strategies
For Article Analysis Questions
- Identify Research Method: Look for random assignment and manipulation of variables (experimental) vs. observation and correlation (non-experimental)
- Operational Definitions: Find the specific, measurable definition of variables in the study
- Data Interpretation: Calculate mean, understand standard deviation, and interpret statistical significance
- Ethics: Know all ethical guidelines—informed consent, protection from harm, confidentiality, debriefing, deception justification
- Generalizability: Consider sample characteristics, size, diversity, and how they limit or enhance external validity
- Connect to Theory: Link findings to established psychological concepts, perspectives, or research
For Evidence-Based Questions
- Craft a Defensible Claim: Make sure your claim is specific, debatable, and supported by psychological science
- Cite Sources Properly: Use parenthetical citations (Source 1) or embedded citations (According to Source 2...)
- Be Specific with Evidence: Include exact numbers, percentages, or findings—not vague summaries
- Explain the Connection: Don't just state a concept—explain HOW and WHY the evidence supports your claim using that concept
- Use Different Perspectives: Part B and Part C must use DIFFERENT psychological perspectives, theories, or concepts
- Write in Complete Sentences: Use proper paragraph structure and psychological terminology
Scoring Guidelines Overview
| AAQ Component | Points | Requirements |
|---|---|---|
| Part A: Research Method | 1 | Correctly identify experimental or non-experimental method |
| Part B: Operational Definition | 1 | Provide specific, measurable definition from the study |
| Part C: Data Interpretation | 1 | Accurately describe what statistical measures indicate |
| Part D: Ethical Guidelines | 1 | Identify specific ethical procedure with evidence from study |
| Part E: Generalizability | 1 | Explain limits/strengths with specific evidence from study |
| Part F: Theory Application | 1 | Connect findings to psychological concept with explanation |
| EBQ Component | Points | Requirements |
|---|---|---|
| Part A: Claim | 1 | Specific, defensible claim addressing the question |
| Part B(i): Evidence 1 | 1 | Specific evidence from one source with citation |
| Part B(ii): Explanation 1 | 1 | Explain how evidence supports claim using psychology concept |
| Part C(i): Evidence 2 | 1 | Specific evidence from different source with citation |
| Part C(ii): Explanation 2 | 1 | Explain using DIFFERENT psychology concept than Part B |
Final Recommendations
Time Management: Allocate 10 minutes to read AAQ source carefully, 15 minutes to write responses. For EBQ, spend 15 minutes reading all three sources and planning, then 30 minutes writing your argument.
Practice with Past FRQs: Review 2025 FRQ scoring guidelines on AP Central to understand exactly what earns points. Practice writing complete sentences with psychological terminology.
Master Research Methods: Every year includes research design analysis. Know experimental vs. non-experimental methods, variables, sampling, ethics, and statistical interpretation.
Connect Across Units: The best responses demonstrate understanding of how concepts relate across different units. Practice making these connections in your study sessions.
Use Correct Terminology: Replace everyday language with precise psychological terms. Say "positive reinforcement" not "rewards," "operational definition" not "how they measured it."
Success Formula
AAQ Success = Careful Reading + Specific Evidence from Study + Accurate Terminology + Clear Explanations
EBQ Success = Strong Claim + Specific Evidence with Citations + Different Psychological Concepts + Thorough Explanations
Final Thoughts
This prediction is based on thorough analysis of historical patterns, course framework emphasis, and assessment trends. While we cannot guarantee these exact topics, the skills and concepts covered here represent the core competencies that will definitely appear on the 2026 exam. Focus on mastering research methods, statistical analysis, and the ability to apply psychological concepts to new scenarios. Good luck on your exam!